2026 Overseas Property Observation: Mainland Buyers Return After Hong Kong's Withdrawal, Avoiding Pitfalls for Dubai and Southern European Properties

In the overseas real estate market of 2026, there is an interesting divergence: on one hand, mainland buyers are concentrated to return after Hong Kong's withdrawal, and on the other hand, some European home buying immigration projects are tightening their thresholds, while Dubai continues to attract global capital with its tax advantages.

For Chinese families, overseas real estate is no longer a simple 'investment' action, but a comprehensive decision intertwined with their children's study abroad residence, identity planning, and asset allocation. Where to buy, what type to buy, and how much holding cost directly affect the living arrangements for the next five to ten years.

1、 Hong Kong: Continued release of spicy effects

In February 2024, the Hong Kong SAR government fully abolished the 'spicy tactics' in the real estate market, significantly reducing the tax burden on non local buyers purchasing properties. More than two years have passed, and the withdrawal effect is still continuing to be released.

Data shows that from January to April 2026, mainland buyers purchased 5777 residential properties in Hong Kong, with a transaction amount of HKD 61.6 billion, accounting for 27% of the total transaction volume of primary and secondary residential properties in Hong Kong. This amount has already reached 45% of the total transaction volume of mainland buyers in 2025. The change in buyer structure is very obvious: high net worth individuals in mainland China are rapidly becoming an important force in the luxury housing market in Hong Kong.

Why are mainland buyers re entering Hong Kong at this point in time? Several factors are combined: firstly, after the decrease in tax and fee costs, the relative attractiveness of Hong Kong properties has rebounded; Secondly, the proximity and language proficiency make it convenient for mainland families to actually live or rent; The third is to form synergy with children studying in Hong Kong and family identity planning; Fourthly, under the Hong Kong dollar linked exchange rate system, the valuation currency of assets is relatively stable.

However, it should be noted that Hong Kong's real estate market is not a 'buy with your eyes closed' market where prices rise. The rental return rate and appreciation logic vary greatly among different regions and layouts, and need to be analyzed in conjunction with factors such as school districts, transportation, and future supply.

2、 Dubai: A Stable Choice in a Zero Tax Environment

On the global real estate investment map, the United Arab Emirates ranks among the top in multiple rankings for 2026. The core reason is very direct: Dubai has no annual property tax, no rental income tax, and no capital gains tax. Compared to Portugal's 28% tax on rental income and the UK's progressive tax of up to 45% on rental income, Dubai's holding cost advantage is very obvious.

Dubai city center, Jumeirah Palm Island and other areas continue to attract high-end Chinese buyers. The strong demand for leasing, large tourist base, and relatively standardized supply of real estate are several supporting points of this market. But the Dubai market also has its own risks: oversupply in some areas leads to rental declines, developer qualifications vary, and the reliability of after-sales leasing management needs to be carefully screened.

For Chinese buyers, Dubai is more suitable for two types of needs: configuration buyers who pursue low holding costs and stable rental returns; The second is entrepreneurs who have a Middle Eastern business layout and hope to have a foothold in a city.

3、 Southern Europe: Adjustment period for property and identity binding projects

Greece, Spain, Portugal and other southern European countries have been the main destinations for Chinese families to buy houses and obtain identity in the past few years. But from 2025 to 2026, policies in this region are undergoing significant changes.

The golden visa program in Spain has terminated in April 2025 and will no longer accept new applications for investment residency. The path to purchasing a house in Portugal has also been closed, and now applications are mainly made through fund investments and other means. Greece has implemented a tiered investment threshold: the investment threshold for real estate in the Athens and Thessaloniki metropolitan areas, as well as popular islands such as Mikonos and Santorini, has been raised to 800000 euros, while in other areas it is 400000 euros. A low threshold of 250000 euros is reserved for specific commercial use converted into residential or historical building restoration projects.

This means that the era of 'buying a house for two or three hundred thousand euros and obtaining EU residency' is coming to an end. However, the project in Greece is still one of the EU residency paths with lower entry barriers within Europe, and it is still worth evaluating for families with children who need to take the joint exam for overseas Chinese students or European identity planning.

4、 The four easiest pitfalls for overseas property buyers

According to the summary of multiple overseas real estate service platforms, the most common problems Chinese buyers encounter when buying houses overseas are concentrated in four aspects.

One is the underestimation of tax costs. Many families only calculate the purchase price, without taking into account the property tax, property fees, rental income tax during the holding stage, and capital gains tax at the time of sale. The holding cost in some European countries can reach 1% to 2% of the property value annually.

Secondly, there is a disconnect in leasing management. Who is looking for tenants, who is collecting rent, and who is responsible for maintenance when the person is in China and the house is overseas? If there is no reliable local management, the property is likely to be vacant for more than six months, resulting in a significant decrease in return rate.

The third is the compliance of capital outflow. How to allocate funds for overseas home purchases, under what pretext, and how to recover profits in the future, these issues must be planned in advance in the regulatory environment of 2026 and cannot go through gray channels.

Fourthly, there are defects in legal property rights. There are significant differences in property ownership systems among different countries, with some regions having complex structures such as shared ownership and long-term lease ownership. Failure to clarify these structures before purchasing can lead to problems with subsequent sales or inheritance.

5、 November Shanghai Exhibition: Centralized docking scene for overseas real estate

From November 20th to 22nd, the 2026 Shanghai Overseas Immigrants, Study Abroad, Real Estate, and Enterprise Overseas and Cross border Cooperation Expo will be held at the Shanghai World Trade Exhibition Center for three days, with an expected attendance of about 8000 people.

The real estate section of the exhibition covers developers, agents, and local law firms in multiple popular markets such as Hong Kong, Dubai, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Japan, Malaysia, and Australia. For interested families, on-site comparisons of entry barriers, holding costs, and rental returns in different markets can be made directly, rather than watching various promotional materials online.

For real estate agencies and developers participating in the exhibition, the three-day concentrated contact with high net worth customers who have genuine overseas property intentions is an important customer acquisition window for the year. On site project promotion, on-site viewing arrangements, appointments, and one-on-one consultations can be conducted.

Consultation hotline: 13681692751 (same as WeChat), official website www.qs-expo.com.